Filecoin’s main online network is just around the corner, and investors who want to seize the opportunity are eager to try.
The mining machine is too complex to understand, there are too many cloud computing pits for fear of being cheated, futures are unsupported for fear of collapse, and the “fortune train” roars in, wanting to get on the train, but do not know what the correct posture is?
In order to answer Filecoin, especially investment-related questions for readers, Deep chain Finance has launched a special column “through the fog of Filecoin investment”, hoping to work with you to break through Filecoin investment and identify the opportunities and risks.
This article is the first article on this topic: Filecoin Futures.
Without saying much, let’s get to the point. This article will give you an interpretation of the “four big pits” of FIL futures investment.
The FIL futures you buy are all “single machine currencies”.
Although the token named “FIL” has been on the exchange since 2017, there is no real ERC20 token on the market because the main Filecoin network has not been launched and the official FIL token has not been launched.
The FIL in all trading platforms can be said to be the “stand-alone currency” within the platform.
SFEX trading platform “stand-alone version” FIL market.
“single currency” means that at present, these futures are centrally traded on the exchange, where users can trade, but cannot recharge and withdraw or move bricks arbitrage across platforms.
Although it is a “single currency”, but with the popularity of Filecoin, FIL futures still attract the attention of the market.
When it was launched, the price rose from $11 to about $27 in just one month, but due to the slow progress of the Filecoin project in the first half of 2018 and the overall environment, FIL futures prices began to decline after soaring in early 2018.
Annual data of FIL futures prices.
To the second half of 2018, Filecoin futures prices experienced a rebound because of the impact of FIL main online expectations again. But as the main online launch was delayed again and again, futures prices fell, as low as $2.58.
The average price of FIL futures has warmed up again after opening high and low since it was launched in 2017. Source: non-trumpet.
Since June this year, FIL futures prices have been stimulated by the news that the main network is about to be launched, directly setting a new high in two years. According to non-secondary data, FIL futures prices have risen 241.99 per cent in the past three months.
According to statistics, at least 52 trading platforms have launched FIL trading pairs, such as Gate.io, C net, BiKi and other trading platforms.
The price of FIL futures varies, and it may not be cost-effective if it is cheap.
When you buy FIL futures, you can’t help but look at the price, but if you compare the goods, you will find that the prices are very different.
Why is the FIL price different from one exchange to another? For investors who hold on to their money and wait and see, is there a guarantee for expensive FIL futures?
In theory, there are two factors that affect the difference in futures prices in the market:
The first is that the trading behavior of the market leads to price differences, the trading data of each trading platform is different, and users are unable to recharge coins and move bricks arbitrage, so there is a price difference.
The second is that the initial pricing of FIL futures of different trading platforms is different, which directly affects the fluctuation range of FIL futures prices.
DeepChain deep chain interview learned that most of the online prices of FIL futures on the market are obtained by referring to the prices of the earliest online FIL futures trading platforms such as Gate.io.
For example, C was priced with reference to the FIL price of Gate.io at that time, while the BiKi exchange subscribed to users at a 20% discount based on the average price of FIL on several exchanges such as Gate.io.
LBank said that it got the quota through Coinlist and released it to users to raise money, and made the opening transaction according to the user’s raising price, that is to say, the opening price was based on the (raising) cost price of obtaining FIL tokens.
For investors, is it true that futures with high prices are reliable and those with low prices are unreliable?
The answer is also no.
First of all, investors need to see clearly which futures category of FIL they are buying, FIL6 or FIL12, or FIL36. According to the release model of FIL tokens, the sooner you can deliver and get the main tokens, the more cost-effective it is.
The reason is simple, because early tokens are scarce and prices are relatively high.
So despite the fact that the FIL36 you bought is several times cheaper than FIL6, I’m glad that by the time you deliver, the price of the currency may have fallen into a mess.
In addition, even if it is the same type of FIL futures, the high price on a certain platform does not mean that the platform is reliable or recognized by users. Because the current trading platforms are internal stand-alone data, 24-hour trading volume, turnover rate these data can also be easily brushed out.
Rather than concerned about the price of FIL futures, investors should be more concerned about whether the FIL futures you are going to buy or have already purchased can be paid after the main online line, and when.
The delivery time of FIL futures is very vague.
If you buy a coin, you should at least know when it will be available.
If you buy FIL futures, I’m sorry, you don’t deserve to know this information.
Why do you say that? In the current trading platforms, FIL futures are mainly divided into four types: FIL1, FIL3, FIL6, FIL12 and FIL36.
FIL I know. What do the numbers 1, 3, 6, 12 and 36 mean?
For traditional futures, numbers generally represent the date of delivery. But in FIL futures, there are different interpretations of the number “6”.
Some exchanges interpret “6” as the main online line and carry out linear convertibility for users within six months, such as BKEX.
The “rules” of FIL Futures promulgated by BKEX Exchange.
Some refer to the lock period of half a year, but the specific lock release time is unknown, such as LBank.
LBank Exchange’s interpretation of FIL Futures.
Other exchanges interpret FIL futures directly as options, such as TOKOK.
TOKOK Exchange directly interprets FIL futures as “options”.
Of course, it is more likely that the exchange has no explanation at all.
PS: copies homework from each other, and no one wants to write a detailed and transparent announcement.
So, for investors, one of the questions you face if you buy a FIL6, is: you never know, will your futures be delivered sometime in the sixth month after the main online line? Or will the delivery be completed within 6 months after the main online line? Or do you start linear delivery only 6 months after the main online line?
Therefore, there is also a huge risk hidden here, in the future, investors who buy futures and the platform to launch futures will have contradictions and differences on the delivery date.
Of course, the platform generally says, “the final interpretation belongs to the platform,” you know.
Can you really redeem your FIL?
Since it is futures, it means that when the contract expires, users who legally buy futures can be exchanged for spot coins. Correspondingly, the trading platform of online FIL futures should also have the corresponding number of FIL tokens sold as reserves.
But are there really so many trading platforms that can pay FIL after the main online service at the end of August?
At present, there are three sources of FIL futures payment on major trading platforms:
First, the trading platform itself participates in the primary market investment of FIL. In short, the exchange itself has a quota for FIL.
Pictures of online LBank subscribing for FIL through Coinlist in 2017.
Second, the trading platform obtains its quota as payment guarantee in the form of purchase or cooperation from investors participating in the primary market of FIL.
Third, the trading platform itself or in cooperation with large miners, the deployment of mining machines or cloud computing power, etc., after the main online, the output of mining as a guarantee.
Of course, there is another kind, that is, the trading platform does not have the future payment source of FIL futures, so there is a huge risk for FIL futures online on such platforms.
Launch FIL futures and identify the source of payment.
DeepChain deep chain survey found that among the 52 trading platforms included in the statistics, only 18 platforms clearly defined the delivery cycle of FIL.
Of the 18, only 9 made it clear that the FIL they sold came from early ICO investment; 3 claimed to have Filecoin mine or pool support behind it; and 3 launched Filecoin’s computing products to pave the way for later supply.
The rest of the trading platforms did not disclose the source of the FIL for delivery.
In 2017, Filecoin launched ICO fundraising. According to the release rules officially issued by Filecoin:
Miners: 70% (i.e. 1.4 billion), released linearly through block incentives, halved every 6 years.
Team: 15% (that is, 300 million pieces), as the R & D and operating expenses of the agreed laboratory team, released linearly according to 6 years.
Investors: 10% (i.e. 200 million), allocated to investors participating in private and public offerings, and released linearly within 6-36 months.
Foundation: 5% (that is, 100 million), as long-term community construction, network management and other expenses, linear release according to 6 years.
Release rate of FIL tokens.
In terms of the six-month cycle, the foundation released about 8.33 million pieces in six months, the early investors released about 33.33 million pieces in six months, and the founding team released about 25 million pieces in six months.
According to the linear decreasing release of mining, the amount of mining release in 6 months is about 80 million, but combined with the actual situation and economic model, the negotiable FIL tokens produced by miners in 6 months will be much less than 80 million.
Because, according to the mining rules, the storage miners who account for a large proportion of the storage space must also use FIL tokens proportional to the storage space to mortgage their hard disk space.
For example, using 1T space storage, you need a FIL token to mortgage, because the storage miners have to promise to complete the task of storing customer data within a certain time frame, then generate spatio-temporal proof and submit it to the blockchain network to prove that they have been storing data.
Therefore, according to statistics, it can be calculated that the release of FIL tokens in 6 months is about 150 million.
However, if we look at the public information, we can find that the current number of futures on the exchange FIL6 has exceeded the six-month release of the FIL main network currency.
Just from the data level, the FIL futures of the main online online trading platform are doomed not to be fully paid.
FIL futures issuance on the trading platform based on public information and interview data.
Of course, the demand of users who really want to cash futures into spot may not be too much, because the FIL futures that have been online may only be sold, and they are not saturated, and there is a high probability that the public data such as trading volume of various platforms are “manual data” of “left hand but right hand”.
In the view of industry insiders, after the launch of the Filecoin main network, the FIL tokens will enter the market, and when the FIL data of all exchanges tend to be unified, in the event of non-payment, investors will suffer losses:
The platform may push futures prices higher before the tokens are released and contribute to knock them down before the delivery date. When delivery, a large number of users cut meat and left the market, and the platform received coins at a low price, making a difference while cashing in to some users.
If it is still unable to pay in full, the platform may seek miners to collect coins off-site OTC, to the user for payment.
For investors, the worst-case scenario is that the exchange does not pay, and the stand-alone FIL in the hands of investors plummets or even returns to zero, which may not be uncommon in the future.
If you really want to buy futures, as an investor, you first need to choose a strong and reliable trading platform, so that you are relatively less likely to encounter risks; second, you must know whether the exchange that is launching FIL futures has the ability to pay.
Finally, DeepChain Deep chain reminds you that investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.